DEFINING THE TRUMP ECONOMY
The most surprising outcome of the past election was the total failure of the so-called experts to predict the Trump victory. Nearly all the last-minute polls, even the exit polls, missed their projection of a Clinton win.
Even the financial markets expected a massive decline under a Trump economy. Before all the polls closed, the international exchanges reported huge losses until the American exchanges opened the next day. Again, the experts had it all wrong. New York exchanges hit historic new highs each of the following three days.
What does that say about the political and financial experts? Investors and voters have become dependent on these national polls and stock market projections fed to them by respected professionals who apparently talked to the wrong people the last few weeks.
Financial commentators were convinced that a Trump victory would toss financial markets and the world economy into a panic reaction. New York Times columnist Neil Irwin wrote “Oops!” The opposite happened. The global-market investors saw a business-favorable Trump economy, the experts didn’t.
So who are those non-conformists that put Trump in the White House? The press broadly defined the grass-roots support as white, high-school educated, middle-class men who are out of work or unable to meet today’s cost of living. Hundreds of thousands in the Midwest Rust Belt have seen their job disappear overseas and living standard decline for the past two decades. The electoral votes from these states put Trump over the top,
The press called it “revenge of the working class,”
Now that the financial “experts” accepted the reality of a Trump economy, what are they predicting? Trying to interpret the president-elect’s campaign promises, the industries most likely to benefit would be construction, bank and energy firms. Less likely to benefit might be health care, pharmaceuticals and high-tech that have already taken some hits in the marketplace.
Financial advisers caution that the sudden surge in exchange indices are fragile. Markets are particularly bad at pricing during seismic events, Irwin warns.
Perhaps the amicable meetings Trump had with President Obama and the Congressional leaders, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, will soothe his relations with the GOP and many of its insiders who opposed him. The president-elect’s early staff appointments certainly shows some conciliation with the GOP and many of the insiders who opposed him.
The important post of Chief of Staff went to Reince Priebus, the chairman of the GOP party during Trump’s campaign and the target of the candidate’s criticism of Republican leaders. Chief Strategist in the Oval Office is Stephen Bannon, a hard-driving businessman with strong connections to Wall Street. Both men stood by Trump despite the party leaders’ reluctance to endorse him until he won the nomination.
Other candidates for cabinet or staff positions are former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former GOP majority leader Newt Gingrich and Gov. Chris Christie, among other connected Republican leaders. That speaks well for the President-elect’s willingness to listen to seasoned politicians for guidance.
Many of the prospects are in the age range of Trump. Too bad there are not younger politicos in the inner circle to breathe new life into the party. Perhaps Trump is depending on his sons and daughters to advise him on 21st century trends.